Aston Martin just dropped a massive upgrade package at the Hungarian Grand Prix, and the numbers behind it are finally out in the open—thanks to some so-called “dark web data” from a top F1 insider.
Leading analyst Rob Smedley, a former Ferrari and Williams star, broke down exactly what Adrian Newey’s 16-part overhaul did for the team’s struggling car. After a brutal first half of the season where Aston Martin watched rivals vanish into the distance, Newey decided to hold off on small fixes and go all-in on one giant update. The gamble paid off: Fernando Alonso made it into Q2 for the first time in ages, and early reports suggested the upgrades shaved nearly two seconds off lap times.
But Smedley wanted real context. Using a trace comparison between Alonso and Williams’ Carlos Sainz, he revealed a fascinating split. On the corners, Alonso was flying—much higher minimum speeds, no need to lift in key turns.
The chassis finally had the downforce and stability Newey was aiming for. But on the straights? That’s where the Honda engine showed its weakness.
According to Smedley, Sainz was up to 10 kph faster on every straight, thanks to the Mercedes power unit.
So how much did the upgrade actually help? Smedley crunched the numbers. Before the Spanish Grand Prix, Aston Martin’s lap time deficit to pole position was 4.
1 percent. After Spain, as top teams brought their own updates, that gap widened to nearly 5 percent. But in Budapest, it shrank back to 3.
9 percent. That’s only a 0. 2 percent gain, but Smedley says it’s huge—it means Aston Martin kept pace with the frontrunners, which is no small feat given where they started.
Now all eyes turn to the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort, where Honda is reportedly bringing its first engine upgrade of the season. And Zandvoort is a real engine track—long straights that punish a power deficit. Smedley warns that the engine gap seen in Budapest could become a much bigger problem there.
Aston Martin needs Honda to step up with those new tokens.
Newey has already confirmed more chassis upgrades are coming at Monza and Baku, and Honda can still bring two more engine updates this year. Plus, Smedley points out a hidden reason for optimism: the team finally has a stable platform. The correlation between simulation and real-world performance is reportedly matching up for the first time.
That’s the foundation they’ve been chasing all season.
So with more upgrades on the way and a car that’s finally behaving as expected, could Aston Martin actually start climbing the grid again—or will the engine deficit keep holding them back?
